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Bulls Hold Back as Inflation and Trade Risks Weigh on Yen
Summary:
Tokyo's inflation data came in stronger than anticipated, bolstering the case for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to hike interest rates as early as May. Signs are emerging that price pressures are broadening across both goods and services sectors.
CLOSED
149.500
Entry Price
155.300
TP
148.000
SL
147.111 -2.134 -1.43%
47.8
Pips
Profit
148.000
SL
149.978
Exit Price
149.500
Entry Price
155.300
TP
Fundamentals
Japan's March Tokyo CPI YoY rate came in at 2.9%, higher than the revised 2.8% in February and above the market expectation of 2.7%. Meanwhile, the core inflation rate rose to 2.4%, surpassing the widely expected 2.2%.
Despite a slight decline in the prices of fresh food and utilities for the month, broader inflationary pressures persist. This trend has strengthened the market's long-standing view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates in May.
However, the BOJ March monetary policy meeting minutes released on Friday revealed growing market concerns over the consequences of U.S. trade policies, particularly the risk that new tariffs could have a negative impact on Japan's real economy.
One board member warned that downside risks from the U.S. have "risen sharply." If the tariff issue escalates, it could have a "negative impact" on Japan's real economy. Should trade tensions intensify, the BOJ should be "particularly cautious" when considering further rate hikes.
Other members also expressed similar concerns, noting that tariff threats, global supply chain disruptions, and intense competition from low-priced Chinese products have increased market uncertainty.
This tone indicates that policymakers are closely monitoring how these factors affect inflation expectations, wage growth, and investment (especially among small and medium-sized enterprises).
Another opinion paper pointed out that as underlying CPI inflation approaches the 2% target, the BOJ should be prepared to shift from an accommodative policy to a "neutral" stance.
Overall, the BOJ still believes that interest rate normalization has its path, contingent on the realization of its inflation outlook. However, recent developments in global trade and domestic corporate performance will determine the pace and timing of the next steps.
Technical Analysis
USDJPY has maintained an upward trend for the third consecutive day, fully reversing the 0.7% decline on Tuesday. Currently, the price has "solidified" above the 150.00 support level and is poised to break through 151.20 for further gains.
However, bulls seem in no hurry to assert their strong position, as fundamentals do not favor further yen depreciation. The market may need to retrace again to confirm the presence of a solid bottom.
In the short term, a strong resistance level is expected to remain at 151.20 to complete the corrective rebound from 146.52. If the price breaks down below the 149.53 support level, it will first retest 146.52. If the market continues to trade below 146.32, the downtrend from 158.86 to the 139.57 support level will resume.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 149.50
Target Price: 155.30
Stop Loss: 148.00
Valid Until: April 12, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 150.00/149.50/149.07
Resistance: 151.25/151.30/151.66
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