The Upper Boundary Could Trigger a New Downtrend

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

Price action has already begun to react bearishly as it nears the 200-period moving average, suggesting that sellers may regain control if the pair fails to break out.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.62751

Entry Price

0.62180

0.63050

0.62881 -0.00072 -0.11%

29.9

Pips

Loss

0.62180

0.63051

Exit Price

0.62751

Entry Price

0.63050

Job openings in the United States declined in February, reflecting growing economic uncertainty as the impact of import tariffs dampened labor demand.

The number of job vacancies, a key measure of labor demand, fell by 194,000 to 7.568 million on the last day of February, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. January’s figures were slightly revised upward to 7.762 million from the previously reported 7.74 million. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast 7.61 million job openings. Meanwhile, layoffs increased by 116,000 to 1.79 million, signaling potential strains in the labor market.

Economic data also pointed to a contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity for the first time this year, with prices rising sharply for the second consecutive month. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index dropped 1.3 points to 49.0 in March, indicating contraction. The figure came in slightly below economists’ median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Price pressures within the sector intensified, with the Prices Paid Index climbing 7 points to 69.4, marking its highest level since June 2022. Over the past two months, this index has surged by 14.5 points—the largest two-month increase in four years—underscoring growing cost pressures as tariffs ripple through the economy.

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams reaffirmed on Monday that current monetary policy remains well-positioned to address economic challenges, though he acknowledged the risks of inflation reigniting.

"Monetary policy remains moderately restrictive," Williams stated in an interview with Yahoo Finance, emphasizing that the current stance continues to exert "some downward pressure on inflation."

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent announced minor adjustments to repurchase agreement (repo) rates on Tuesday but clarified that these changes have no implications for the central bank’s monetary policy stance.

The RBA increased the pricing of all new Open Market Operations (OMO) repos by 5 basis points, bringing them to 10 basis points above the cash rate target. Additionally, the central bank introduced a new seven-day maturity term alongside the existing 28-day term, effective April 9.

Despite these adjustments, the RBA left its benchmark interest rate unchanged and maintained a neutral tone. Governor Michele Bullock reiterated that the board remains data-dependent and has not committed to any policy moves in May.

Investor sentiment remains fragile ahead of “Liberation Day,” when the White House is expected to unveil a sweeping tariff package targeting key trading partners. The Upper Boundary Could Trigger a New Downtrend_1

The Upper Boundary Could Trigger a New Downtrend_1

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD continues to trade within a descending channel, with the upper boundary aligning with the 100- and 200-period moving averages. This confluence of resistance could serve as a strong barrier, potentially setting the stage for a renewed downward move. Price action has already begun to react bearishly as it nears the 200-period moving average, suggesting that sellers may regain control if the pair fails to break out of the channel with strong momentum.

On the hourly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 65, approaching overbought territory. This indicates that bullish momentum may be fading, reinforcing the case for a potential downside reversal. If resistance levels hold, the next bearish targets lie near the lower boundary of the channel, around 0.6217—a key local low reached in the previous session.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6275

Target price: 0.6218

Stop loss: 0.6305

Validity: Apr 10, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

USDCAD is trading within an ascending channel, having recently bounced off the 200-period moving average, reaching a local low of 1.4235 near the lower boundary of the channel.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.43040

Entry Price

1.44700

1.42200

1.42251 -0.00169 -0.12%

84.0

Pips

Loss

1.42200

1.42195

Exit Price

1.43040

Entry Price

1.44700

On Monday, the White House press secretary stated that there would be “no exemptions at this time” for the reciprocal tariffs set to take effect tomorrow. While this initially fueled concerns in the markets, it also left room for speculation that the high tariffs might not be a long-term fixture.

Economic data released on Monday pointed to further signs of weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in March from 50.3 in February, missing market expectations of 49.5. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.

Employment conditions in the manufacturing industry also deteriorated, with the Employment Index dropping to 44.7 from 47.6. This signals a faster pace of job losses in the sector. Meanwhile, the Prices Paid Index—a measure of inflation within the manufacturing industry—jumped to 69.4 from 62.4, suggesting that cost pressures are mounting despite weakening demand.

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams reaffirmed on Monday that current monetary policy remains appropriately positioned to tackle economic challenges, though he acknowledged the risks of inflation flaring up again.

"Monetary policy remains moderately restrictive," Williams said in an interview with Yahoo Finance, emphasizing that the Fed’s stance continues to exert downward pressure on inflation.

Separately, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that the timing of any rate cuts would depend on inflation trends. He expressed concerns that the trade tariffs introduced by the Trump administration could contribute to higher prices while also posing risks to the labor market.

"Consider me nervous on both fronts," Barkin admitted, adding that "there’s a lot of uncertainty right now, which makes a strong case for waiting to see how things play out."

Meanwhile, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem addressed the potential impact of trade tariffs on inflation and monetary policy. Speaking last week, he emphasized the BoC’s sensitivity to inflationary pressures stemming from trade disputes. He noted that February’s hotter-than-expected CPI report had caught policymakers’ attention but clarified that it had not fundamentally altered the overall policy outlook.

Market expectations regarding BoC rate moves remained largely unchanged following Macklem’s remarks. Swaps currently price in an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in June. Bullish Momentum Could Take Off Again From This Zone_1

Bullish Momentum Could Take Off Again From This Zone_1

Technical Analysis

USDCAD is trading within an ascending channel, having recently bounced off the 200-period moving average, reaching a local low of 1.4235 near the lower boundary of the channel. From this level, the pair gained bullish momentum, climbing to 1.4414 before encountering resistance as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit 58. Following this move, price action has retraced once again toward the 200-period moving average, a zone that could attract buyers looking for another upside push.

Additionally, the 1.4261 level has established itself as a significant support area, as previous bullish moves have originated from this zone. If this level holds, another rebound could unfold, reinforcing the broader uptrend. However, a decisive break below the trendline with strong bearish momentum could trigger a deeper decline toward the next key support at 1.4165.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.4300

Target price: 1.4470

Stop loss: 1.4220

Validity: Apr 10, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The USDCAD experienced a marginal increase on Tuesday, reaching approximately 1.4400. The CADUSD weakened due to heightened risk aversion among investors, who were anticipating the release of U.S. trade tariffs on Wednesday.

BUY USDCAD

EXP

TRADING

1.44103

Entry Price

1.47800

1.41650

1.42251 -0.00169 -0.12%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.41650

Exit Price

1.44103

Entry Price

1.47800

Fundamentals

The USDCAD reached a two-and-a-half-week high on Tuesday, surpassing the 1.4400 threshold, with potential for further gains during the session. The market is currently consolidating recent gains as investors await President Trump's announcement on reciprocal tariffs before making new directional bets.

From an economic perspective, the Canadian economy, after a stronger-than-expected start to the year, appeared to stall last month, potentially an early indicator of the impact of tariff concerns.

Statistics Canada forecasts that after a 0.4% MoM GDP growth in January, there was virtually no change in GDP across various sectors in February. The market had previously anticipated a 0.3% growth for January, aligning with earlier preliminary market estimates.

The preliminary February data, indicating stagnant GDP growth, reflects weakness, though this cannot be entirely attributed to the U.S. tariff threats, given the unusually harsh winter weather. Nevertheless, it further suggests a loss of economic momentum, even before the full impact of the emerging trade war with the U.S. is reflected in hard data, which is likely to push Canada into a mild recession by mid-year (bearish for the Canadian dollar).

The latest Canadian GDP figures are unlikely to significantly influence the Bank of Canada's (BOC) next interest rate decision. We still anticipate the BOC will hold rates steady, as it seeks to balance the negative demand shock from tariffs with the upside risks to inflation.

Technical Analysis

The USDCAD has recently reversed from a support zone between the 1.4255 support level and the support trend line established since November, forming a solid bottom.

Given the robust daily uptrend and bullish sentiment surrounding the U.S. dollar, the USDCAD is anticipated to ascend towards the next resistance level at 1.4500.

On the downside, a break below the 1.42324 support level would signal the commencement of a third-wave downward correction, with targets set at 1.4150 and below.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.4332

Target Price: 1.4780

Stop Loss: 1.4165

Valid Until: April 16, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.4332, 1.4234, 1.4156

Resistance: 1.4464, 1.4521, 1.4595

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Forex

Summary:

Following a significant downturn in early trading on Monday, the U.S. stock market experienced a substantial intraday rebound. Major indices recovered from their session lows, yet the closing results were mixed.

SELL US30

EXP

TRADING

41794.92

Entry Price

39656.00

43400.00

41303.44 -448.50 -1.07%

0.0

Pips

Flat

39656.00

Exit Price

41794.92

Entry Price

43400.00

Fundamentals

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 417.86 points, a 1% increase, closing at 42,001. The S&P 500 rose 30.91 points, a 0.6% gain, to reach 5,611.85. The Nasdaq, while experiencing a significant intraday rebound from its lows, ultimately closed down 23.70 points, a 0.1% decrease, settling at 17,299.

The initial weakness in the U.S. stock market stemmed from persistent concerns regarding the potential impact of reciprocal tariffs, which President Trump indicated he would impose on U.S. trading partners on Wednesday, April 2.

Trump's remarks to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday suggested that these tariffs would apply to all countries, not just those with the most significant trade imbalances. Investors are apprehensive that these tariffs, coupled with potential retaliatory measures from targeted countries, could exacerbate inflation, sustain elevated interest rates, and impede global economic expansion.

However, as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reached six-month lows, the selling pressure diminished throughout the trading day. This prompted some investors to capitalize on the lower valuations, driving a late-day rally in the U.S. stock market.

MARKET WATCH: If the current administration persists with its disruptive tariff policies, the increasingly precarious economic outlook will likely trigger a market correction, and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to intervene with immediate relief. This approach risks precipitating a recession.

A second term under the current administration's "tariff regime" is projected to yield adverse outcomes, tempering previous bullish sentiment. We assess that the cumulative impact of these tariffs is increasingly likely to induce stagflation, as the financial burden will be borne by a combination of foreign exporters, U.S. importers, and U.S. consumers. The consequence will be elevated prices and diminished corporate profit margins compared to a tariff-free scenario.

Economists also believe that tariffs function as a tax on imported goods, typically levied on importing firms, which subsequently pass a portion or the entirety of these costs onto consumers through higher prices. It is regrettable that the current administration's policies are poised to inflict such damage on the U.S. economy.

Bearish Sentiment Is Expected to Persist in the Market_1

Technical Analysis

Despite the Dow Jones Industrial Average's rebound on Monday, it remains below its 200-day SMA, indicating a continued bearish trend. A breakdown below recent lows would validate this bearish continuation.

From a structural perspective, the index maintains bearish conditions, evidenced by a head and shoulders top pattern in both the 4H and 1D timeframes.

The short-term trading range is approximately between 40,664 and 42,267. A breakout above the latter could initiate a new upward movement; conversely, a break of the 40,664 support level warrants caution for further downside risk, with short-term targets below 40,641 and the 40,000 threshold.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 42000

Target Price: 39656

Stop Loss: 43400

Valid Until: April 16, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 41168, 40664, 39977

Resistance: 42244, 42862, 43389

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

EUR/USD fell sharply to near 1.0785 following the release of preliminary Eurozone HICP data for March, which showed an acceleration in inflation on a monthly basis but a moderation on an annual basis.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.07850

Entry Price

1.06500

1.08600

1.09447 +0.00872 +0.80%

75.0

Pips

Loss

1.06500

1.08600

Exit Price

1.07850

Entry Price

1.08600

The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a notable dip during Tuesday's European trading session, falling to levels around 1.0785 following the release of the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for March. The sharp downturn in the Euro, which had briefly held stronger levels earlier in the week, appears to be a reaction to the inflation data as well as heightened concerns surrounding the US administration's ongoing trade policies.

The March HICP data revealed a complex picture for the Eurozone. On a monthly basis, inflation rose by 0.6%, while the core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as energy and food, climbed by 1%. This marks a solid month-on-month increase, but the annual figures were less impressive. Year-on-year, the headline inflation rose by 2.2%, just below the expected 2.3%, and down from 2.3% in February. The core inflation, which had shown a slightly stronger 2.6% increase the previous month, grew at a slower 2.4%. These numbers suggest that inflationary pressures in the Eurozone remain under control, but not at the levels the European Central Bank (ECB) might have hoped for as it navigates its monetary policy decisions.

The moderation in inflation, combined with a deceleration in unemployment rates to 6.1% from 6.2% in February, paints a picture of an economy still recovering but without the strong inflationary push that would justify tighter monetary policy. As a result, expectations are building that the ECB will opt for further interest rate cuts at its next meeting on April 17. The continued low inflation data and softening job market may force the ECB to act more aggressively to stimulate the economy, as weaker growth continues to challenge the region’s economic stability.

The EUR/USD pair’s decline came amid broader market unease about the potential impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policies. The Trump administration is reportedly finalizing a proposal to impose tariffs of up to 20% on imports from a number of countries, including key European trading partners. This move, which follows the President’s push for reciprocal tariffs on foreign imports, has sparked concerns about rising costs for American consumers and businesses. While these tariffs are primarily aimed at reducing the US trade deficit, they could also slow economic growth, particularly if businesses pass on the cost of tariffs to consumers.

While the US dollar held steady, with little movement in its value against the Euro during Tuesday's session, investors were increasingly worried about the ripple effects of these tariff measures. The financial markets seem divided on whether these trade tensions will lead to a full-blown recession. Goldman Sachs recently raised the probability of a US recession to 35%, up from a previous forecast of 20%. The investment bank cited a sharp decline in household and business confidence as key drivers behind the revision.

At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been more measured in its response, with Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva downplaying fears of a significant economic downturn. In an interview with Reuters NEXT, Georgieva acknowledged that the uncertainty created by tariffs could dent business confidence but stopped short of predicting a major recession, citing the absence of dramatic economic impacts from the tariffs imposed so far.

However, Trump’s tariff plans, particularly the 25% levy on imported cars and light trucks, have already had a significant effect on market sentiment. Financial markets are factoring in the potential negative impact on Germany’s economy, as the US is one of the largest destinations for German auto exports, with the sector accounting for 13% of total auto exports. A significant downturn in this sector could exacerbate existing economic challenges for the Eurozone, especially in light of already sluggish growth in major economies.

In response to the looming threat of new tariffs, European leaders have started to prepare countermeasures. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, confirmed in a statement on Tuesday that the EU has a plan ready to retaliate if necessary. “We do not necessarily want to retaliate, but if it is necessary, we have a strong plan to do so,” von der Leyen stated. This rhetoric suggests that the Eurozone will not back down easily in the face of US trade actions, raising the stakes for global trade relations.

ECB President Christine Lagarde also weighed in on the economic implications of the US’s tariff policies. In a recent interview with France Inter radio, Lagarde emphasized the need for Europe to chart its own course and become more independent in its economic decision-making, alluding to Trump’s trade policies as a catalyst for a greater focus on self-sufficiency within the EU.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has encountered significant downward pressure. The currency pair had failed to breach the resistance level around 1.0830, signaling weakness in the short-term bullish momentum. Currently, EUR/USD is testing the support level at 1.0782, and a break below this could open the door to further downside movement, with the next key support level seen at 1.0732. The breakdown below the rising wedge pattern could signal the continuation of the downtrend, with traders watching for a potential retest of the broken trendline, which would confirm a more sustained bearish outlook.

In terms of trading strategy, those looking to short EUR/USD might consider placing a stop above 1.0850, with a target around 1.0650, as the market remains vulnerable to further downside moves amid the combination of economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.0785

STOP LOSS: 1.0860

TAKE PROFIT: 1.0650

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The AUD/USD remains range-bound at 0.6250 after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 4.1%, with no clear guidance on future policy moves.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.62500

Entry Price

0.61000

0.63100

0.62881 -0.00072 -0.11%

60.0

Pips

Loss

0.61000

0.63101

Exit Price

0.62500

Entry Price

0.63100

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has seen a period of consolidation around the 0.6250 mark as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 4.1%, in line with market expectations. Despite the decision to hold rates steady, the central bank's lack of confidence regarding the trajectory of inflation casts doubt on the Australian economy's near-term outlook. As global trade tensions and economic uncertainties intensify, the Aussie faces a critical test in the coming days, particularly with the impending announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding reciprocal tariffs on China.

During the RBA’s latest monetary policy meeting, Governor Michele Bullock reaffirmed the bank's cautious approach to rate cuts, stating that while inflation remains a key concern, the board was not prepared to commit to a May rate move just yet. The lack of a clear stance on future rate cuts stems from ongoing concerns about inflation, which remains above the RBA’s target range of 2%-3%. The central bank’s inability to provide definitive guidance on whether inflation is on a steady path to normalization has kept investors on edge.

Bullock’s comments further emphasized the board's uncertainty, noting that the RBA has yet to feel "100% confident" that inflation is moving towards its target. With this in mind, the RBA has opted for a wait-and-see approach, signaling that future decisions will depend on whether inflationary pressures ease in the coming months. As a result, the AUD/USD pair has struggled to maintain any significant directional bias, with the pair hovering near 0.6250 during Tuesday's European trading session.

In the backdrop of the RBA’s cautious policy stance, another major concern for the Australian Dollar is the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs on China. These tariffs, which are set to be unveiled on Wednesday, could significantly affect global trade dynamics, with China being one of Australia’s largest trading partners.

Trump’s administration is reportedly preparing to announce the highest tariffs ever imposed on Chinese goods, in retaliation for China's large trade surplus with the United States. Sources close to the White House suggest that tariffs of around 20% could be applied to most imports from China, potentially stoking tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The imposition of such tariffs would likely make Chinese products less competitive on the global stage, which in turn could have profound implications for Australia’s export-driven economy.

Given that a substantial portion of Australia's exports, including commodities such as iron ore and coal, are destined for China, any slowdown in Chinese demand would weigh heavily on the Australian economy. As the Chinese economy faces the prospect of increased tariffs and trade barriers, the AUD/USD pair may come under further pressure, especially if the U.S. implements these tariffs sooner rather than later.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar (USD) has largely remained range-bound as investors await clarity on the forthcoming tariff announcement. Market participants have been cautious, sitting on the sidelines as the White House finalizes its tariff proposal. With the U.S. Dollar trading sideways, market focus will soon shift to the release of key economic data, including the U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February and the ISM Manufacturing PMI for March, both of which are expected to provide additional clues regarding the strength of the U.S. economy.

These data points could have a substantial impact on the USD’s performance, as a stronger-than-expected jobs report or manufacturing data could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates elevated in the months ahead. Conversely, weaker-than-anticipated data could spark concerns over a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy, potentially limiting the Fed's room to tighten monetary policy further.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD pair appears to be on the verge of a bearish breakdown. A head-and-shoulders pattern has formed on the daily chart, a classic technical signal of impending price declines. Following a breakout of the neckline after testing resistance at 0.6280, the pair seems to be under the control of bearish momentum. The next key level of resistance sits at 0.6280, which could cap any upward retracement in the near term.

Should the pair encounter resistance at this level, traders might consider a short position with an initial target near the 0.6190 support zone. A further drop below this level could see the AUD/USD pair heading towards the 0.6100 mark. On the other hand, if the pair manages to break through resistance at 0.6330, it could signal a reversal and trigger a potential rally in the Aussie Dollar.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6250

STOP LOSS: 0.6310

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6100

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices continue their relentless rally, breaching fresh all-time highs as investors brace for U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff implementation.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

3129.78

Entry Price

3200.00

3100.00

3128.12 -6.22 -0.20%

0.0

Pips

Flat

3100.00

Exit Price

3129.78

Entry Price

3200.00

Gold (XAU/USD) extended its bullish momentum this week, surging past $3,130 and registering its second all-time high in just days as global markets prepared for the implementation of U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. With the announcement expected on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT, traders and investors remain on edge, seeking safe-haven assets to shield against escalating trade tensions and economic uncertainty.

The yellow metal's relentless climb underscores investor anxiety over Trump's aggressive trade stance, which could spark retaliatory measures from major economies. As a result, gold has found strong support, positioning itself as the ultimate safe-haven asset amid global economic volatility. At the time of writing, gold has eked out an intraday high of $3,149, with analysts eyeing the psychological $3,200 mark as the next upside target.

Market participants are bracing for what some are calling "Liberation Day"—a day when Trump is set to impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries trading with the U.S. This unprecedented move is expected to shake global markets, driving investors toward gold as a hedge against uncertainty.

Amy Gower, a commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated that "The trade war may be entering a new, more aggressive phase, and gold is benefitting as a risk-averse asset. With geopolitical tensions on the rise, we expect gold to reach $3,300–$3,400 this year." This outlook aligns with projections from Goldman Sachs, which sees gold prices reaching $3,300 by the end of the year. The metal’s recent performance suggests that markets are already positioning themselves for prolonged uncertainty, with physical demand and macroeconomic factors providing further support for the rally.

The gold price rally has sent South African mining stocks soaring, with the country’s mining equities recording their best monthly performance on record. According to Reuters, these stocks jumped 33% in March alone, significantly boosting the South African benchmark index amid turbulence in global markets. This surge highlights the outsized impact of gold prices on resource-heavy economies, particularly in Africa, where mining remains a cornerstone of economic activity. With demand expected to remain strong, gold-producing nations may continue to see windfall gains.

While gold remains in focus, U.S. monetary policy developments are also playing a critical role in shaping market sentiment. Investors have been closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, and recent comments from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin suggest that policymakers are struggling to get a clear read on economic conditions. Speaking in an interview with CNBC, Barkin described the economic outlook as being "wrapped in a thick fog," making it difficult to determine the future path of interest rates. This uncertainty has dampened market expectations for an imminent rate cut, with the CME FedWatch tool now assigning only a 13.1% probability of a May rate cut—down from 18.1% earlier this week. However, the possibility of a cut in June remains a focal point, with markets currently pricing in a 23.1% chance that rates will remain unchanged, leaving room for potential easing should economic data deteriorate.

Technical Analysis

Gold’s latest surge marks its fourth consecutive session of gains—the longest winning streak in four months. The metal remains firmly within a bullish trend, trading above its short-term upward trendline, with technical indicators providing further confirmation of strength. Despite gold trading in overbought territory, momentum indicators such as the Stochastic oscillator suggest further upside remains in play. Additionally, the metal continues to find strong support above the 50-candle Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing the dominance of bullish market sentiment.

Currently, XAU/USD is attempting to consolidate above the previous high of $3,127, which could serve as an ideal support level for the bulls. Traders are eyeing a potential correction before another leg higher, with key technical levels suggesting resistance at $3,147, $3,155, and $3,166, while support is found at $3,127, $3,119, and $3,111. A brief pullback toward key support zones could help normalize the recent market imbalance before resuming the uptrend. A consolidation above $3,127 or a false breakdown to $3,119 or $3,111 would present attractive entry points for long positions, as the broader trend remains overwhelmingly bullish.

With a cocktail of geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and monetary policy uncertainty fueling demand for gold, the metal’s outlook remains decisively bullish. As traders await Trump’s tariff announcement, gold could see increased volatility, but the overall trajectory continues to favor higher prices. Whether gold reaches the much-anticipated $3,200 mark in the short term remains to be seen, but the combination of macroeconomic factors and technical momentum suggests the path of least resistance remains to the upside

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3130

STOP LOSS: 3100

TAKE PROFIT: 3200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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The Upper Boundary Could Trigger a New Downtrend

Technical Analysis

Bullish Momentum Could Take Off Again From This Zone

Technical Analysis

Bulls Are Supported by a Solid Bottom

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Bearish Sentiment Is Expected to Persist in the Market

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

EUR/USD Plummets Amid Mixed Market Sentiment on Inflation and Tariff Risks

AUD/USD Struggles Below Key Resistance, Bears Eye 0.6100 Amid RBA and Trade Tensions

Technical Analysis

Gold Surges Over 1.5% This Week as Markets Brace for Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs

Risk Disclosure