Sterling gains as traders eye US tariffs

Source:Reuters

Oil fell on concerns that the Trump administration’s tariff onslaught will reduce energy demand.

West Texas Intermediate slid below $70 a barrel, retreating along with equity markets. Crude still was on pace for its third straight weekly advance amid waning expectations of a near-term oversupply. The US is planning to impose tariffs on auto imports and so-called reciprocal levies next week, widening the global trade war.

Oil traders face an uncertain outlook as they grapple with President Donald Trump’s policies and an OPEC+ plan to revive idled output. WTI futures have been rangebound for the past eight months, trading in a band of about $15 between the high $60s and low $80s.

“US stocks are struggling, and longer-term demand fears are on the minds of most traders as tariffs begin to kick in on cars not manufactured in the US,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities.

Earlier this week, Vitol’s chief executive officer said while there are some threats to supply, it’s generally adequate for the next couple of years. Meanwhile, Venezuela is boosting oil exports to China as the Trump administration deploys sanctions and secondary tariffs to squeeze the Latin American nation.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, US companies have all but abandoned the green bonds that were once touted as a way for corporate America to have a hand in fixing the planet.

Only one such US dollar bond from an American firm has hit the market in 2025, a $350 million note from Oglethorpe Power in January, marking the slowest start to a year in at least a decade. For years the main sellers of the bonds have included banks and utilities, with household names like Apple Inc. and Walmart Inc. also occasionally making splashy issues.

Now companies are shifting their approach to the climate cause, after emboldened Republican leaders have stepped up their attacks on investments that try to achieve environmental goals such as cutting emissions, as well social objectives like promoting equality, or governance targets. Bonds funding environmental projects, known as green bonds, are the most commonly sold type of ESG debt.

Even before Trump’s reelection, green-bond sales were down from their 2021 peak amid GOP pushback, inconsistent cost savings for issuers and scrutiny over greenwashing from the left.

“In the US especially, it’s been a pretty steep, decent decline and a bleak outlook moving forward,” said Andrew Poreda, a senior research analyst on Sage Advisory Services’ responsible investing team. “Even just the label of a green bond might be contentious.”

In other parts of the world, issuance is still going strong, with total green bond sales expected to reach $660 billion this year, about an 8% bump over last year, BNP Paribas said in January. In the US, green municipal bonds are still seeing strong issuance. And companies are still funding projects in the US to improve their efficiency and meet other environmental goals — they’re just doing so outside the green bond market.

Companies that continue clean-energy initiatives have quieted their messaging and sustainable debt has taken a hit, with overall ESG dollar-designated bond sales from American corporations and financial institutions down nearly 89% from the year prior through Thursday. The biggest American lenders have staged an exodus from the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, a global climate coalition, and tempered policies around diversity, equity and inclusion.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Anticipated Bitcoin price falls may influence cryptocurrency market trends and investor strategies significantly.

Market Prediction and Impact

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has forecast a potential Bitcoin price drop to below $70,000. His prediction aligns with the $16.5 billion options expiry on March 29, 2025, causing market speculation.

Brandt, known for past accurate market predictions, shared his analysis on X, hinting at a possible dip. The cryptocurrency community remains divided in anticipation of the upcoming expiry effects.

Concerns Over Market Stability

The prediction has stirred concerns among traders about immediate market stability. Bitcoin's latest price data shows fluctuations, contributing to broader market uncertainties. "This is not an unreasonable expectation," noted Peter Brandt, veteran trader and technical analyst here.

Financial analysts note the potential for further implications due to additional factors like inflation data and geopolitical events that underscore market volatility, adding pressure on Bitcoin prices.

Pricing and Future Outlook

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, priced at $83,976, shows recent declines of 3.7% over 24 hours and 0.06% in 7 days. Volume has increased by 18.44%, revealing heightened trading activity. This data is attributed to CoinMarketCap.

Future scenarios may involve enhanced trading strategies and shifts in regulatory frameworks. Investors anticipate new technological advancements, which could reshape the cryptocurrency landscape, offering novel opportunities and challenges.

Source: CryptoSlate

Early on the morning of March 28 Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese paid a visit to the governor-general, asking her to dissolve Parliament so that a federal election can be held. This was no surprise, given that legally an election needed to be held before May 17. Albanese has chosen a date two weeks earlier, and Australians will head to the polls on May 3. 

The current Labor Party government has a slim majority of just two seats in the House of Representatives. This makes the election a perilous one for the party trying to hold onto its majority, but doesn’t necessarily make it advantageous for the Liberal and National parties’ Coalition, which need to win at least 18 more seats than in the 2022 election to form a majority themselves.

The reason the gap is so large is because Australians have taken a sharp turn away from the traditional parties in recent years. At the 2007 election the combined percentage of primary votes won by the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Coalition was over 85 percent. At the last election in 2022 this had declined to around 68 percent. There is little sign of this trend reversing. 

In Australia’s preferential – or ranked choice – voting, the “primary vote” is the number of people who have given a party their first preference (ranked them first on the ballot). Due to this voting system, votes have tended to find their way back to the major parties as people rank their ballot, which produces results where a party’s percentage of primary votes is far lower than their percentage of seats.

This voting system has allowed the state to maintain stability while the public has consistently chipped away at the power of the traditional major parties. Over this period Greens have consistently captured around 10-12 percent of the vote, but have failed to move beyond this. Recent state and council elections indicate that this might be their ceiling. 

While an array of narrow or single-issue parties have flooded the country’s ballots and been able to attract small percentages of the vote, the real political shift in the country is the public’s increasing attraction to independent candidates. 

The public have internalized a belief that the game of relentless party advantage does not work in either local or national interests. Many believe that the parties have become far too obsessed with contesting their main opponents and less focused on the job of governing. There is a lack of trust in political parties to do their job political parties were designed to do. Australians also look to the United States and see that a strict two-party system creates the opposite of stability; it leads to political, social and even familial division. 

Into this environment has stepped a movement called the Community Independents Project, which created a template for grassroots organization and tactics for winning elections. So far the movement has been able to win eight seats in the House of Representatives, and 36 candidates will be utilizing its model this election. 

While in the last election the model was able to gain the most traction in urban elections – with the country’s wealthy elite launching a revolt against their traditional home in the Liberal Party – the model’s roots are rural, where it won its first seat, and this is where the the Community Independents Project will most likely gain further traction in this election. 

Rural electorates in Australia have unique sets of interests that require MPs who demonstrate both commitment and care. Often these electorates are massive, with the largest – Durack in Western Australia – being twice the size of Texas. As a result they house communities that can be isolated and lacking in the services that urban Australia takes for granted. Political bickering, culture war theatrics, or intra-party horse-trading do them no service. 

This makes independent candidates incredibly attractive to rural voters. It creates a bond of trust and connection to local interests that can otherwise be subsumed to party interests. Until recently, independents in the Parliament tended to be from rural electorates. 

The most likely scenario from this election is a minority government – with either Labor or the Liberal-National Coalition having to negotiate with the crossbench to form a government. Labor will be loath to negotiate with the Greens due to the party’s absolutist politics and aggressive tactics, and this would be a political non-starter for the Liberals and Nationals. It is also unlikely that the Green will secure enough seats to be the kingmakers. 

This will place power into the hands of an array of independent candidates. It will give them the responsibility to do what the public want them to do – negotiate in good faith, balance their local community interests with national ones, and be calm, rational decision makers. This type of politics may be a dream, but Australians are hoping it could be reality. 

Source: The Diplomat

U.S. President Donald Trump’s anticipated tariff announcements next week threaten the global growth outlook, although the risks from escalating trade tensions have been "well telegraphed" and are "largely priced in corners of the market," according to analysts at Barclays.

In a note to clients, the analysts led by Emmanuel Cau noted that Trump’s so-called "liberation day" pronouncements, which are projected to be unveiled on April 2, "may not be a complete shocker." Trump is expected to reveal "reciprocal" tariffs that aim to match foreign levies on U.S. goods, although he has suggested that the duties may be more "lenient."

Still, the Barclays analysts said Trump’s tariffs would target a group of 15-25 countries that would take effect immediately.

"The ’good’ news is that it should remove some uncertainty, as we will finally find out which countries are taxed by the U.S., and by how much," the brokerage wrote. "The bad news however, is that negotiations will likely start after April 2, which leads to an extended period of uncertainty about the final scope, level and timing of tariffs."

The comments come after Trump said he plans to slap the tariffs on global automotive imports into the U.S. from April 3, following through on a prior pledge to place a trade tax on overseas car and truck manufacturers.

Speaking at the Oval Office on Wednesday afternoon, Trump added that the duties will apply to “all cars not made in the U.S."

The statement appeared to exclude possible carve-outs for Mexico and Canada, two countries that play a pivotal role in the process of car construction in North America and have a free-trade agreement with the U.S. that was signed during Trump’s first term in office.

Source: Investing