"Bitcoin Macro Index" Bear Signal Puts $110K BTC Price Return in Doubt

Oil prices were little changed Friday, remaining near a one-month high and heading for a third consecutive weekly gain amid concerns of a tightening supply.

At 06:40 ET (10:40 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in April weakened 0.2% to $73.19 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were 0.2% lower to $69.80 per barrel. 

Both contracts were on track to rise over 2% for the week, marking their third consecutive weekly gain, driven by U.S. threats of tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil and gas, along with declining U.S. crude inventories.

"Crude prices are trading almost flat this morning as the market remains cautious about softer demand and rising supply," said analysts at ING, in a note.

Oil set for weekly jump 

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all imports from countries that purchase oil or gas from Venezuela, effective April 2. 

Venezuela’s oil exports are a significant component of its economy, with China being its largest oil buyer. Other major buyers include the U.S. and India.

The announcement has raised concerns about potential disruptions in global oil supply chains and has contributed to higher oil prices.

Moreover, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly report released on Wednesday, suggested a tightening supply in the crude oil market.

U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels to 433.6 million barrels, a drawdown exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 956,000-barrel reduction. 

Gasoline stocks fell by 1.4 million barrels, though the decline was slightly less than analysts’ expectations of 1.8 million barrels. 

Trump set to impose reciprocal tariffs next week

President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday his intention to impose a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles and parts, effective April 2.

Trump is also set to impose separate worldwide reciprocal tariffs on April 2, seeking to target countries with significant trade imbalances with the U.S.

The escalating trade tensions and impending tariffs are keeping oil traders cautious, as potential disruptions to global supply chains and economic uncertainty could weigh on fuel demand.

OPEC+ to start reviving output

Investors are also aware that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is scheduled to start reviving its idled production with the first monthly increases of 138,000 barrels per day next month, following its decision to gradually unwind the output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026.

"On the other hand, some of the OPEC countries have agreed to further reduce the output (ranging from 189k b/d to 435k b/d until June 2026) to compensate for higher production earlier. The cuts, if implemented, will help offset the production hikes and balance the market in the immediate term," said ING.

Source: Investing

The UK’s total retail sales index from January 2022 to February 2025. The index is seasonally adjusted and uses 2022 as the base year (Index = 100).

Non-Food Stores Lead the Charge

Food Sales Pull Back

Broader Trends and Online Spending

Cautious Outlook Says Lloyds Bank

Source: Poundsterlinglive

Source: Euronews

On March 27, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced substantial interest from investors, resulting in $89 million in net inflows. Approximately 1,020 BTC were purchased, reflecting confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

Institutional investors are increasingly turning to BTC ETFs as a regulated and accessible way to gain exposure to the leading cryptocurrency. This surge in inflows highlights Bitcoin’s continued dominance in the crypto investment landscape.

Ethereum ETFs See Notable Outflows

In contrast, Ethereum ETFs faced net outflows of $4.2 million, with around 2,090 ETH sold on the same day. This divergence suggests a more cautious stance among Ethereum investors, potentially driven by regulatory uncertainties or concerns over market volatility.

Despite Ethereum’s strong fundamentals, including its role in the decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT ecosystems, short-term market sentiment remains lukewarm. The contrast between BTC and ETH ETF flows further underlines Bitcoin’s status as the preferred choice for institutional portfolios.

What This Means for the Market

The recent ETF activity provides insights into broader market sentiment. Bitcoin’s resilience in attracting inflows indicates a growing belief in its value as a long-term store of value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s outflows may reflect temporary uncertainty, but its innovation and growing use cases suggest potential recovery in the future.

Investors should closely monitor ETF flow trends as they often act as a leading indicator of institutional sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

Source: CryptoSlate

"EUR resilience in the face of worrying developments on the trade front is either impressive or optimistic," says Daragh Maher, Senior FX Strategist at HSBC. "It feels unsustainable.'

Source: Poundsterlinglive

Britain’s economy grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024, in line with economists’ expectations from a Reuters poll, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed on Friday.

The services sector posted a 0.1% increase in output during the quarter, while construction grew by 0.3%. In contrast, production output fell by 0.4%.

Real annual GDP growth for 2024 has now been revised up to 1.1% from an initial estimate of 0.9%, following a 0.4% increase in 2023, the ONS said. 

Real households’ disposable income (RHDI) per head rose by 1.7% in the fourth quarter, accelerating from 0.6% growth in the previous quarter.

The latest data adds to the stagnation concerns as households continue to accumulate cash at record levels.

The household savings ratio climbed from 10.3% to 12% in the final quarter of 2024, marking the highest level outside of the pandemic since 2010, following the financial crisis. Non-pension savings also reached their highest point on record, excluding the COVID period.

Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said that the economy “continues to show little growth since last summer.”

GDP per head, a critical measure of living standards, fell by 0.1% between October and December, signaling a technical recession after two consecutive quarters of decline. Growth per head was flat across 2024.

The data comes after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) on Wednesday trimmed its 2025 GDP growth forecast in half, from 2% to 1%. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said last week that “the world has changed,” attributing the weak outlook to global uncertainty and rising borrowing costs.

She reiterated on Wednesday that “the global economy has become more uncertain, bringing insecurity at home.”

Adding to the economic uncertainty, the UK and Europe face further challenges as U.S. President Donald Trump plans to introduce sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2, which he has dubbed “Liberation Day” for America.

Trump announced 25% tariffs on car imports to the U.S. on Wednesday, dealing a significant blow to British and European exporters.

In a separate report on Friday, the ONS revealed that British retail sales rose by 1% in February, exceeding expectations.

Data from the ONS showed that the volume of goods purchased outperformed economists’ forecasts of a 0.4% decline, according to a Reuters poll. However, the February increase was smaller than the 1.4% gain recorded in January.

In the three months to February, retail sales were up 0.3% compared to the previous three-month period.

The pound briefly strengthened after the positive data against the dollar, rising to $1.2952 by 08:03 GMT. 

Source: Investing