Clouds Gathering Around Global Growth Outlook Amid Trump Tariffs, Barclays Says

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Economic

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Investing.com - U.S. President Donald Trump’s anticipated tariff announcements next week threaten the global growth outlook,...

U.S. President Donald Trump’s anticipated tariff announcements next week threaten the global growth outlook, although the risks from escalating trade tensions have been "well telegraphed" and are "largely priced in corners of the market," according to analysts at Barclays.

In a note to clients, the analysts led by Emmanuel Cau noted that Trump’s so-called "liberation day" pronouncements, which are projected to be unveiled on April 2, "may not be a complete shocker." Trump is expected to reveal "reciprocal" tariffs that aim to match foreign levies on U.S. goods, although he has suggested that the duties may be more "lenient."

Still, the Barclays analysts said Trump’s tariffs would target a group of 15-25 countries that would take effect immediately.

"The ’good’ news is that it should remove some uncertainty, as we will finally find out which countries are taxed by the U.S., and by how much," the brokerage wrote. "The bad news however, is that negotiations will likely start after April 2, which leads to an extended period of uncertainty about the final scope, level and timing of tariffs."

The comments come after Trump said he plans to slap the tariffs on global automotive imports into the U.S. from April 3, following through on a prior pledge to place a trade tax on overseas car and truck manufacturers.

Speaking at the Oval Office on Wednesday afternoon, Trump added that the duties will apply to “all cars not made in the U.S."

The statement appeared to exclude possible carve-outs for Mexico and Canada, two countries that play a pivotal role in the process of car construction in North America and have a free-trade agreement with the U.S. that was signed during Trump’s first term in office.

Source: Investing

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Oliver Scott

Economic

Forex

U.S. President Donald Trump's scheduled April 2 tariff policy announcement could clear a fog of uncertainty that has clouded financial markets this year, yet few investors expect to get the definitive guidance they seek.

Investors entered 2025 bullish about pro-growth government policies under Trump, but instead the stock market has swooned since his inauguration. Headlines on tariffs whipsawed Wall Street, knocking the S&P 500 as much as 10% earlier this month.

The benchmark index is on pace to finish the first quarter down about 3%, its biggest decline for the first three months since 2022.

"I'm an eternal bull, but I would tell you that I think that between now and next week, and certainly the beginning of earnings season, I think there's more potential downside than upside right now," Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer at Siebert Financial said.

The April 2 tariff announcement should reveal which countries and sectors the Trump administration will target as it tries to reduce a $1.2 trillion global goods trade deficit.

Heavy volatility is expected, with stock prices swinging wildly on factors such as how steep the tariffs will be, their duration, which countries and sectors they will target and any retaliatory measures from trading partners.

"Uncertainty has continued to plague the market with volatility," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors.

"There is potential for more volatility on April 2 and post that deadline," Arone said.

On Thursday, governments from Ottawa to Paris threatened retaliation after Trump unveiled a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, hammering auto stocks and testing already strained ties with allies.

The April 2 announcement is likely "not a one-and-done event," said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

"It is an important milestone, but at the end of the day, it doesn't completely really clear out all the uncertainties that potentially still remain," Kourkafas said.

The market reaction on April 2 “will depend heavily” on timing for future tariffs, especially sectoral tariffs, and how fast other countries could retaliate to reciprocal tariffs, said Matthew Aks, senior strategist at Evercore ISI.

"If other countries retaliate, that will create the risk of an escalatory cycle that could dampen any feeling of relief," he said.

On Wednesday, strategists at Barclays slashed their 2025 target price for the S&P 500 to 5,900 from 6,600, based on an expectation that earnings take a hit as tariffs feed a material slowdown in U.S. activity that stops short of recession.

The bank trimmed its 2025 S&P 500 EPS estimate to $262 from $271, implying moderately below-trend growth, due to a hit from tariffs, with discretionary stocks among the most vulnerable.

The risks are not all to the downside. The recent stock selloff could tempt buyers should the administration's tariff moves fall short of the market's worst fears.

"I don't think there's anything that would happen that would surprise the market to the downside," said Harris Financial Group Managing Partner Jamie Cox, who would view any fresh bout of weakness as a buying opportunity.

Some said the tariff deadline could allow Trump to pivot to more market-friendly policies, including tax cuts.

"I think they're going to start shifting gears and move from tariffs," Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth, said.

"That won't go away completely, but there will be more emphasis on the tax talk. That's what I'm hoping for."

That could drive a rebound in investors' appetite for risky assets.

"It's been all spinach and no candy so far, but I think the candy is likely coming later in the year," State Street's Arone said.

During Trump's first term, stocks took a tumble as a U.S.-China trade war heated up with the S&P 500 shedding about 18% between January and December 2018. The index went on to recover all the lost ground within about three months as trade war concerns eased.

Still, investors worry that an extended back-and-forth on tariffs boosts chances for lasting damage to the U.S. economy. U.S. consumer confidence plunged to the lowest level in more than four years in March, as investors worried more about a recession and higher inflation due to tariffs.

"I have not seen movement in confidence like this that has not had some negative impact somewhere," Siebert's Malek said.

The stock market's recent bout of nerves is largely driven by concern that tariffs would significantly weaken the economy, said John Canavan, lead analyst at Oxford Economics. Some recent weakness could spill into the second quarter, Canavan said.

Uncertainty on tariffs has so far discouraged investors from buying shares at a discount following Wall Street's quarterly decline.

"Getting greater clarity will allow markets to move higher," State Street's Arone said.

"I am still skeptical that will get that clarity ... we are hoping for it, but we will see," he said.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin risks falling into a fresh bear market as a large collection of BTC price metrics produces a “bearish divergence.”

In a social media discussion on March 27, Bitcoin commentators flagged troubling signals from the Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin Macro Index.

Bitcoin Macro Index slump “not great,” says creator

As BTC/USD struggles to return to the area around all-time highs, onchain metrics are beginning to lose their bull market edge.

The Bitcoin Macro Index, created by Capriole in 2022, uses machine learning to analyze data from a large number of metrics that founder Charles Edwards says “give a strong indication of Bitcoin’s relative value throughout historic cycles.”

“The model only looks at on-chain and macro-market data. Uniquely, price data and technical analysis is not considered as an input in this model,” he explained in an introduction to the tool at the time.

Since late 2023, the metric is printing lower highs while price prints higher highs, creating a “bearish divergence.” While common to previous bull markets, a potential implication is that BTC/USD has already put in a long-term peak.

“Not great,” Edwards reacted while reposting a print of the Index uploaded to X by another user.

“But... when Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won't be fighting it.” "Bitcoin Macro Index" Bear Signal Puts $110K BTC Price Return in Doubt_1

Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: @A_Trade_Academy/X

BTC price metrics struggle to recover

Various analytics sources have concluded that Bitcoin is suffering from macro turbulence this year.

In one of its “Quicktake” blog posts this week, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant referenced four onchain metrics currently in a state of flux.

“All of these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing significant turbulence in the short to mid-term,” contributor Burak Kesmeci commented.

“However, none of them indicate that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top level.” "Bitcoin Macro Index" Bear Signal Puts $110K BTC Price Return in Doubt_2

"Bitcoin Macro Index" Bear Signal Puts $110K BTC Price Return in Doubt_2

Bitcoin IFP chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

The list includes the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unspent Profit/Loss (NUPL), as well as the so-called Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric, which flipped bearish in February.

For this to change, Kesmeci concluded, IFP should return above its 90-day simple moving average (SMA).

Source: Cointelegraph

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Nathaniel Wright

Commodity

Oil prices were little changed Friday, remaining near a one-month high and heading for a third consecutive weekly gain amid concerns of a tightening supply.

At 06:40 ET (10:40 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in April weakened 0.2% to $73.19 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were 0.2% lower to $69.80 per barrel.

Both contracts were on track to rise over 2% for the week, marking their third consecutive weekly gain, driven by U.S. threats of tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil and gas, along with declining U.S. crude inventories.

"Crude prices are trading almost flat this morning as the market remains cautious about softer demand and rising supply," said analysts at ING, in a note.

Oil set for weekly jump

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all imports from countries that purchase oil or gas from Venezuela, effective April 2.

Venezuela’s oil exports are a significant component of its economy, with China being its largest oil buyer. Other major buyers include the U.S. and India.

The announcement has raised concerns about potential disruptions in global oil supply chains and has contributed to higher oil prices.

Moreover, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly report released on Wednesday, suggested a tightening supply in the crude oil market.

U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels to 433.6 million barrels, a drawdown exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 956,000-barrel reduction.

Gasoline stocks fell by 1.4 million barrels, though the decline was slightly less than analysts’ expectations of 1.8 million barrels.

Trump set to impose reciprocal tariffs next week

President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday his intention to impose a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles and parts, effective April 2.

Trump is also set to impose separate worldwide reciprocal tariffs on April 2, seeking to target countries with significant trade imbalances with the U.S.

The escalating trade tensions and impending tariffs are keeping oil traders cautious, as potential disruptions to global supply chains and economic uncertainty could weigh on fuel demand.

OPEC+ to start reviving output

Investors are also aware that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is scheduled to start reviving its idled production with the first monthly increases of 138,000 barrels per day next month, following its decision to gradually unwind the output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026.

"On the other hand, some of the OPEC countries have agreed to further reduce the output (ranging from 189k b/d to 435k b/d until June 2026) to compensate for higher production earlier. The cuts, if implemented, will help offset the production hikes and balance the market in the immediate term," said ING.

Source: Investing

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Warren Takunda

Economic

UK retail sales volumes rose for the second consecutive month in February, signalling a rebound in consumer activity driven by strong performance in non-food sectors and a notable uptick in online sales, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Retail sales volumes climbed 1.0% in February 2025, following an upwardly revised 1.4% increase in January.

This exceeded the consensus expectation of -0.4%.

"Retail sales continue their rebound after the Budget knocked confidence for a couple of months. Retail sales volumes have been trending up pretty solidly since late-2023 and 3m year-over-year growth reached the highest since March 2022. GDP growth will rebound in Q1," says Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

It marks the highest monthly sales level since July 2022, indicating growing consumer confidence despite ongoing cost-of-living pressures. On an annual basis, sales volumes were up 2.2% compared to February 2024.

Retail Sales Can Help a Q1 Growth Rebound_1

The UK’s total retail sales index from January 2022 to February 2025. The index is seasonally adjusted and uses 2022 as the base year (Index = 100).

Non-Food Stores Lead the Charge

The standout contributor to February’s rise was the non-food store sector, which posted a robust 3.1% monthly increase. All sub-sectors — including department stores, clothing retailers, household goods, and other non-food outlets — saw gains. In particular, household goods sales soared by 6.8%, the strongest monthly performance since April 2021, fuelled by a surge in hardware store activity.

Demand for luxury goods also surged, with jewellery and watch retailers reporting higher sales amid increased consumer interest in gold as an inflation hedge.

Clothing stores bounced back after a 2.7% drop in January, helped by widespread discounting and falling prices, though sales have not yet fully recovered to previous levels.

Food Sales Pull Back

In contrast, food store sales volumes declined by 2.0%, unwinding part of January’s sharp 4.8% jump. Supermarkets were the main drag, with retailers pointing to persistent cost pressures and price sensitivity among shoppers.

Broader Trends and Online Spending

Over the three months to February, sales volumes rose 0.3% compared with the previous three months, and 2.0% year-on-year — evidence of a strengthening retail recovery after a subdued 2023.

Online retail also regained momentum. The value of internet sales rose 3.3% in February after a weak January, with increases recorded across all retail categories. The share of retail spending conducted online edged up to 26.5%, from 25.8% the previous month.

Despite the monthly boost, online spending over the three-month period to February was still down 3.1% compared with the preceding three months, highlighting lingering volatility in consumer patterns.

Cautious Outlook Says Lloyds Bank

February's figures suggest UK consumers remain resilient, with discretionary spending showing signs of revival. The gains in non-food retail — especially in big-ticket items and luxury goods — may hint at renewed optimism or strategic consumer behaviour amid economic uncertainty.

However, the drop in food sales and the continued pressure from inflation signal that challenges remain. Retailers will now look to sustain momentum into the spring, with March data due for release on 25 April 2025.

The ONS also released quarterly national accounts today, which revealed an increase in the household savings ratio to 12.0% from 10.3%, suggesting a cautious consumer

"On that basis, it is questionable whether too much should be read into the much stronger than expected retail sales figures for February," says Sam Hill, Head of Market Insights at Lloyds Bank.

Hill says some of the upside in these retail sales data is also likely to be a function of unfavourable revisions to January influencing the arithmetic and the price deflator dipping.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The day after the announcement of new US tariffs on car imports, the European Commission stated on Thursday that it is awaiting the US's reciprocal tariffs, set to take effect next week, before deciding on any countermeasures.

“If necessary, we will deliver firm, proportionate robust, and well calibrated and timely response to unfair and counterproductive measures from the US,” Commission spokesperson Olof Gill said, adding that he cannot tell the “exact timing” of EU actions until US tariffs come into force. US tariffs on cars are due to be implemented on 2 April.

US tariffs on steel and aluminium have already been implemented. In addition to the 25% tariffs on cars unveiled on Wednesday, reciprocal tariffs are set to target the EU on 2 April. However, it remains unclear whether these tariffs will affect European countries individually or the EU as a bloc.

The European Commission is set to consult member states on a list of American products that have been subject to suspended tariffs since 2018, following a trade dispute between the EU and the first Trump administration over steel and aluminium tariffs. In addition, a second list of US goods is under consideration, as Brussels weighs its next steps in the row. These measures will form part of a broader package of retaliatory tariffs, expected to take effect by mid-April.

But an EU official told Euronews that Brussels will not settle for these two lists alone, warning that once Washington announces its reciprocal tariffs next week, the bloc may need to respond with further measures. “We haven't announced anything on services or on the anti-coercion tool,” the official said.

So far, the announced countermeasures on steel and aluminium have only targeted American goods. However, in 2023, the US recorded a services trade surplus of €109 billion with the EU. Expanding retaliatory measures to services would mark a significant escalation in the ongoing trade tensions between Brussels and Washington.

The anti-coercion instrument, adopted by the EU in 2023 but never used, is seen too by some experts as a "nuclear option" in trade policy. It would enable Brussels to impose measures on intellectual property rights or, for example, restrict licensing against a third country, adding a powerful tool to the bloc’s arsenal in global trade disputes.

The announcement of tariffs on car imports into the US has sparked strong reactions across the EU.

“It is now important that the EU gives a decisive response to the tariffs - it must be clear that we will not back down to the USA. Strength and self-confidence are required,” German Minister for economic affairs Robert Habeck said in a statement, adding: “At the same time, we will support the European Commission in continuing to find a solution with the USA through negotiations that avert a tariff spiral.”

EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič met on Tuesday in Washington with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and top White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett. However, according to the European Commission, the talks yielded disappointing results.

“It’s true that Commissioner Šefčovič’s mission to Washington DC just now didn’t deliver any negotiated outcome" Gill said on Thursday, despite Commission's hopes for progress.

“This is very bad news, and it is an act that is obviously uncooperative, in a situation where it is cooperation that will allow us to resolve the problem,” French economy minister Eric Lombard commented on Thursday on French public radio France Inter about US tariffs on cars. He added: "We are in a situation where we are under attack: either we let it happen, in which case this situation will never end; or we retaliate, unfortunately, that is the rule of the game that has been imposed by the Americans.”

Source: Euronews

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Liam Peterson

Cryptocurrency

On March 27, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced substantial interest from investors, resulting in $89 million in net inflows. Approximately 1,020 BTC were purchased, reflecting confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

Institutional investors are increasingly turning to BTC ETFs as a regulated and accessible way to gain exposure to the leading cryptocurrency. This surge in inflows highlights Bitcoin’s continued dominance in the crypto investment landscape.

Ethereum ETFs See Notable Outflows

In contrast, Ethereum ETFs faced net outflows of $4.2 million, with around 2,090 ETH sold on the same day. This divergence suggests a more cautious stance among Ethereum investors, potentially driven by regulatory uncertainties or concerns over market volatility.

Despite Ethereum’s strong fundamentals, including its role in the decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT ecosystems, short-term market sentiment remains lukewarm. The contrast between BTC and ETH ETF flows further underlines Bitcoin’s status as the preferred choice for institutional portfolios.

What This Means for the Market

The recent ETF activity provides insights into broader market sentiment. Bitcoin’s resilience in attracting inflows indicates a growing belief in its value as a long-term store of value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s outflows may reflect temporary uncertainty, but its innovation and growing use cases suggest potential recovery in the future.

Investors should closely monitor ETF flow trends as they often act as a leading indicator of institutional sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Clouds Gathering Around Global Growth Outlook Amid Trump Tariffs, Barclays Says

Source: Investing

Analysis-Wall Street Straps in for Trump’s Tariff Reveal; Sees No End to Fog of Uncertainty

Source: Yahoo Finance

"Bitcoin Macro Index" Bear Signal Puts $110K BTC Price Return in Doubt

Bitcoin Macro Index slump “not great,” says creator

Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: @A_Trade_Academy/X

BTC price metrics struggle to recover

Bitcoin IFP chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Source: Cointelegraph

Oil Prices on Course for Weekly Gains; Trump Tariffs Loom

Oil set for weekly jump

Trump set to impose reciprocal tariffs next week

OPEC+ to start reviving output

Source: Investing

Retail Sales Can Help a Q1 Growth Rebound

The UK’s total retail sales index from January 2022 to February 2025. The index is seasonally adjusted and uses 2022 as the base year (Index = 100).

Non-Food Stores Lead the Charge

Food Sales Pull Back

Broader Trends and Online Spending

Cautious Outlook Says Lloyds Bank

Source: Poundsterlinglive

EU Commission Preparing 'Well-Calibrated' Retaliation to US Tariffs

Source: Euronews

BTC ETFs See $89M Inflows While ETH ETFs Face $4.2M Outflows

Ethereum ETFs See Notable Outflows

What This Means for the Market

Source: CryptoSlate

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