Israel Scraps Tariffs On US Imports Ahead Trump Announcement

Economic

Summary:

On Tuesday, Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich took a significant step by signing a directive to...

The news is seen as a win for the Trump administration, which has blasted friends and foes alike for "ripping off America for years" on tariffs.

The directive, which takes immediate effect, was made in coordination with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Economy Minister Nir Barkat. However, it still requires final approval from the Knesset Finance Committee before it can be fully implemented.

The decision comes after Smotrich sent a letter on March 20 to Barkat and Agriculture Minister Avi (JO:AVIJ) Dichter, urging the removal of tariffs, particularly in the agricultural sector. This is in response to the US administration’s plan to impose reciprocal and sectoral tariffs on trading partners, including Israel, starting April 2.

By scrapping the tariffs on US imports, Israel aims to maintain a strong trading relationship with the United States and potentially avoid the impact of the new tariffs set by the US administration. The directive is expected to have immediate implications for trade between the two countries, particularly for Israeli importers and consumers of US goods.

Source: Investing

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Damon

Economic

Commodity

Wall Street's bullishness on gold doesn't appear to be wavering as the precious metal hit yet another all-time high.

On Tuesday futures (GC=F) made their 19th intraday record of the year, surging above $3,170 per ounce before paring gains ahead of President Trump's reciprocal tariff plan announcement expected on April 2.

"Within the commodities complex, long Gold presents the obvious hedge for risky market exposure in our view, especially since the bullish medium-term trend dynamics remain firmly intact," JPMorgan analysts said in a note on Tuesday.

Most notable is the rapid pace at which gold has risen, notching its best quarterly performance in nearly 40 years

JPMorgan's researchers note gold went from $2,500 to $3,000 per ounce in 210 days, much faster than previous $500 increments, which took an average of 1,700 days.

Year-to-date gold prices are up 19%, while over the past year the commodity is up more than 40%.

"A simple regression analysis shows that over the period since early 2024, gold has turned into a momentum trade, which appears to be backed less by fundamentals and driven more by momentum," wrote Societe General researchers and strategists in a note last month.

"Our view is that this momentum dynamic will remain broadly intact," they wrote. The firm expects gold will reach $3,300 by year-end.

A stack of one kilogram gold bullion bars sit inside a vault in Germany. Photographer: Michaela Handrek-Rehle/Bloomberg · Bloomberg Creative via Getty Images

Goldman Sachs analysts recent raised their year-end price target to $3,300 "reflecting upside surprises in ETF inflows and in continued strong central bank gold demand." The firm also identified potential events which could spark selling and create better entry points for investors.

"First, a Russia-Ukraine peace deal would likely trigger speculative selling," Goldman commodities strategist Lina Thomas said in a note last Wednesday.

"Second, while not the base case of our portfolio strategists, a potential sharp equity sell-off may trigger margin-driven gold liquidation," she added, noting that a sell-off would be "short-lived."

In the meantime, near-term price action may depend on the exact details of President Trump's highly anticipated announcement at the White House rose garden on Wednesday. Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on imports from other countries.

"Tariff-related information has already been partly reflected in gold prices over the past week," said Linh Tran, market analysts at XS.com. "If President Trump delays the implementation of these policies, the market may witness a short-term correction in gold as investors take profits after a strong rally."

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Warren Takunda

Economic

A large majority of western Europeans support retaliatory tariffs against the US, a survey has suggested, if Donald Trump introduces sweeping import duties for major trading partners as expected this week.

The US president appears likely to unleash a range of tariffs, varying from country to country, on Wednesday, which he has called Liberation Day. He also said last week that a 25% levy on cars shipped to the US would come into force the next day.

Many European firms are likely to be hit hard. Some, including Germany’s car manufacturers and France’s luxury goods firms and wine, champagne and spirits makers, rely on exports to the US for up to 20% of their income.

The EU has already pledged a “timely, robust and calibrated” response to Washington’s plans, which experts predict are likely to depress output, drive up prices and fuel a trade war. Global markets and the dollar fell on Monday after Trump crushed hopes that what he calls “reciprocal tariffs” – arguing that trading partners are cheating the US – would only target countries with the largest trade imbalances.

A YouGov survey carried out in Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK found that if the US tariffs went ahead, large majorities – ranging from 79% of respondents in Denmark to 56% in Italy – favoured retaliatory levies on US imports. Large Majority of Europeans Support Retaliatory Tariffs Against US, Poll Finds_1

Large Majority of Europeans Support Retaliatory Tariffs Against US, Poll Finds_1

In both Germany, where carmakers such as Porsche, BMW and Mercedes face a significant blow to their profits, and France, where US sales of wines and spirits are worth nearly €4bn (£3.4bn) a year, 68% of respondents backed retaliation.

Respondents in all seven countries favoured a tit-for-tat response despite the damage they expected US tariffs to do to their national economies, with 75% of Germans saying they expected “a lot” or “a fair amount” of impact.

That assessment was shared by 71% of respondents in Spain, 70% in France and Italy, 62% in Sweden, 60% in the UK and half of Danes questioned in the survey, which was carried out in the second and third weeks of March. Large Majority of Europeans Support Retaliatory Tariffs Against US, Poll Finds_2

Large Majority of Europeans Support Retaliatory Tariffs Against US, Poll Finds_2

Of the six EU countries polled, majorities of between 60% in Denmark and 76% in Spain thought US tariffs would have a significant impact on the bloc’s wider economy. That was the sentiment of 74% of German and 68% of French respondents.

Trump, who was elected partly on a promise to restore US industry, has repeatedly complained that the EU has been “very unfair to us” when it comes to trade. He also said in February that the 27-nation bloc had been “formed to screw the United States”.

Pluralities or majorities in all six EU countries surveyed, ranging from 67% in Denmark and 53% in Germany to 41% in France and 40% in Italy, said they did not agree with him, compared with only 7% to 18% who thought he was correct.

Source: Theguardian

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

Global stocks rose on Tuesday following Wall Street's overnight gains, while gold hit an all-time peak and Treasury yields fell as markets awaited details of U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs.

The Japanese yen held firm, as did the Swiss franc, as traditional haven assets drew demand.

At the same time, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rebounded after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates steady, as widely expected, but warning of "pronounced" global uncertainty.

Investors are nervously awaiting April 2, a day Trump has dubbed "Liberation Day", when he has promised to unveil a massive reciprocal tariff plan.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative released its annual report on foreign trade barriers on Monday, which contained scores of other countries' policies and regulations it regards as trade barriers.

Yet it was unclear how the 397-page report will impact Trump's reciprocal tariff plans.

European stocks got off to a stronger start, after the previous day's bout of profit-taking, particularly in assets that are highly vulnerable to U.S. tariffs. The index, which rose 5.1% in the first three months of the year, was up 0.7% in early trading, with pharma and technology stocks leading the way.

"In terms of the upcoming tariff announcement, we still don’t know which countries they’ll be imposed on and what rate. It's fair to say that the administration might not have the final plan ready as yet," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.

Uncertainty is running high. Various measures of stock, bond and currency volatility have risen sharply in the past few days, reflecting the challenge for investors of trading the unknown.

The S&P 500 gained 0.55% on Monday, snapping a three-day losing run, but futures eased 0.1%.

"It is possible that a significant portion of last night's rebound in the key (Wall Street) indices was attributable to month-end and quarter-end rebalancing flows, as well as short covering ahead of Trump's Liberation Day, amid considerable uncertainty about what comes next," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

"U.S. equity markets are priced for a slowdown in growth and earnings. However, they are not priced for a recession, and if the U.S. economy enters recession, U.S. stock markets could easily fall by another 10%."

Gold powered to a record high for a fourth straight session, hitting $3,148.88 per ounce.

"On top of general risk aversion, investors are increasing allocation to gold with the Trump administration's trade policy threatening the dollar's special reserve status," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com.

"The fundamental backdrop remains strong for gold."

DOLLAR UNDER PRESSURE

Demand for the safety of Treasuries sent yields lower on Tuesday, as prices rose, with those on benchmark 10-year notes falling nearly 6 basis points to 4.188%.

That kept the dollar in check, leaving the euro narrowly lower on the day at $1.0801, while the yen held steady at 149.875 and the Swiss franc strengthened, leaving the dollar down 0.1% at 0.883 francs .

Investor caution towards U.S. assets has resulted in continued pressure on the dollar, which posted its worst first-quarter performance against a basket of currencies in nine years this year, with a drop of nearly 4%.

The Aussie retreated from the day's highs to trade 0.1% lower at $0.6245. The RBA held rates at 4.1%, having just cut them by a quarter point in February for the first time in over four years.

"Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced," the RBA said in its statement, adding that U.S. tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally.

"The RBA's statement suggests they're inching towards their next cut, but in no rush to signal one," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.

Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $83,040.

Oil prices edged up, extending Monday's 2% rally. Brent crude was up 0.1% at $74.79 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 0.1% to $71.52.

At the weekend, Trump threatened secondary tariffs on Russian crude and on Iran. He also warned Iran of bombing if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear programme.

Source: Reuters

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin faces a new “consolidation zone” as exchange inflows tag multiyear lows, new analysis says.

In an April 1 post on X, Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, declared that Bitcoin sellers had “dried up.”

Average exchange inflows down 64% since November

Bitcoin sell-side pressure has eased considerably since its first push above the $100,000 mark in late 2024, data shows.

Analyzing BTC inflows to major crypto exchanges, Adler revealed a sharp drop in the seven-day average total sent for sale.

“The average selling pressure on top exchanges has dropped from 81K to 29K BTC per day,” he said alongside a CryptoQuant chart.

“Welcome to the zone of asymmetric demand.” Bitcoin Sellers 'Dry Up' as Weekly Exchange Inflows Near 2-Year Low_1

Bitcoin 7-day average exchange inflows. Source: Axel Adler Jr./X

On March 23, seven-day average inflows hit their lowest levels since May 2023, when BTC/USD traded at less than $30,000.

Given that current prices are almost three times that amount, Adler sees the potential for light at the end of the tunnel for a 2025 Bitcoin bull market correction.

“The market has successfully absorbed waves of profit-taking following the break above $100K,” he concluded.

“Sellers have dried up, and buyers seem comfortable with current price levels - setting the stage for a structural supply shortage. April-May could turn into a consolidation zone - a calm before the next impulse.”

Binance inflows hint at a “more neutral stance”

As Cointelegraph reported, signs already hint that market sentiment has become aligned with price reality.

The Coinbase Premium, which acts as a proxy for US exchange demand, continues to circle neutral levels, recovering from negative territory despite no real price rebound.

That said, short-term analysis warns of a fresh uptick in inflows this week — with the exception of global exchange Binance.

“Short Term Holders are sending significantly less BTC to Binance — only 6,300 BTC, compared to an average of 24,700 BTC to other exchanges,” CryptoQuant contributor Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of data analysis platform Alphractal, noted in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts.

“This suggests lower selling pressure on Binance, with many traders possibly adopting a more neutral stance.” Bitcoin Sellers 'Dry Up' as Weekly Exchange Inflows Near 2-Year Low_2

Bitcoin Sellers 'Dry Up' as Weekly Exchange Inflows Near 2-Year Low_2

Binance vs. other exchange BTC inflows from short-term holders (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Source: Cointelegraph

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Warren Takunda

Economic

European stock markets ended March in negative territory, marking their first monthly decline this year, as investors braced for the unveiling of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs alongside 25% import levies on automobiles. On the final trading day of March, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index dropped 1.51%, the DAX declined 1.33%, and the CAC 40 slid 1.58%. Over the month, the three major benchmarks lost 3.8%, 2.38%, and 4.09%, respectively.

Despite the setback, European equities have outperformed their US counterparts this year. Wall Street recorded its sharpest monthly decline since December 2022, as concerns mounted over the potential economic fallout from the widening scope of tariffs.

Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs on “Liberation Day”

Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, branding it as America’s “Liberation Day.” The new tariffs will target “all countries,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed on Monday that the tariffs would be “country-based” with “no exemptions.” She said Trump’s tariff plan would “roll back the unfair trade practices that have been ripping off out country for decades,” and hinted that the European Union, Japan, India, and Canada were likely to be among the targets, citing their higher import tariffs on US goods. The 25% tariffs on automobiles will also take effect the same day.

The US president has also suggested imposing tariffs on medical products, lumber, and semiconductors, with duties on copper expected to follow in the coming weeks. In February, Trump signed an executive order launching an investigation into copper imports, citing national security and economic stability concerns. In mid-March, he imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium, following sweeping duties on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China

European consumer stocks lead broad losses

The expansion of Trump’s tariffs is expected to hit several key European sectors, particularly luxury goods, automobiles, and healthcare. In March, consumer cyclical stocks were the biggest laggards in the Stoxx 600 index, falling 12%. The sector’s decline was largely driven by luxury stocks and automaker shares. LVMH and Hermès plunged 18% and 12%, respectively, last month. The automotive sector also suffered heavy losses in anticipation of the tariffs, with Mercedes-Benz down 9.3%, Volkswagen dropping 10%, BMW declining 12%, and Stellantis tumbling 17%.

Healthcare and technology stocks were among the biggest losers, partly due to Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on medical products and semiconductor chips. Novo Nordisk shares slumped 27% in March—their worst performance since 2022—following disappointing trial results for its next-generation weight-loss drugs and concerns over potential US tariffs. Additionally, the two largest European tech stocks, SAP and ASML, slumped 7.9% and 10.7% last month.

The euro posts its strongest monthly gain since 2022

In contrast, the euro recorded its strongest monthly performance against the US dollar since November 2022. The EUR/USD pair surged 4.25% in March, climbing from 1.04 to 1.08. Optimism over the European Union’s fiscal plans, including increased defence spending and Germany’s debt reform, contributed to the rally.

Meanwhile, the US dollar weakened amid growing concerns that Trump’s tariffs could dampen economic growth. Diverging government bond yields also reflected shifting market sentiment. Germany’s 10-year bund yield rose 29 basis points to 2.73%, while the US 10-year Treasury yield remained flat at a three-month low of 4.21%. Investors sought safety in US government bonds amid rising recession fears, while European government bonds were sold off, driving yields higher due to higher premium requirements in anticipation of increasing debt issuance.

Source: Euronews

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The New Zealand dollar is expected to remain subdued in the near term as global trade tensions and a sluggish domestic recovery weigh on sentiment, ASB says in a new quarterly forecast update.

Although the Auckland headquartered lender says it expects NZD/USD to fall further, it will see a meaningful recovery by mid-2026.

The Kiwi currency has already softened slightly against the U.S. dollar and yen since Donald Trump's return to the White House and further U.S. tariffs are expected to bolster the greenback.

However, losses against European currencies such as Pound Sterling and the Euro have been more severe, with GBP/NZD now trading at its highest levels since 2015. In fact, ASB's projections suggest these exchange rates might be overvalued.

(To see all the forecast points and in-depth research details, please email our partners at Horizon Currency directly expressing your interest).

The subdued currency outlook comes amid what ASB describes as a "Prius-like" economic recovery — steady but restrained.

After contracting sharply in 2024, the New Zealand economy has begun to recover, led by exports of dairy, meat, and tourism services.

"If economic recoveries are cars – New Zealand is more Toyota Prius than Ferrari 458... the economy is on the mend," says Nick Tuffley, ASB's Chief Economist. "But the pace is moderate, and global developments could dampen the recent good fortunes of NZ’s export sectors."

Real GDP growth is projected to remain negative through mid-2025 on an annual basis, before picking up to 2.4% by early 2026. Consumer demand is expected to recover gradually as interest rates fall and household purchasing power improves.

However, risks remain. Slowing global growth, weak domestic productivity, and the potential for retaliatory tariffs could derail the export-led recovery. “NZ is a small and open economy that is highly reliant on frictionless trade,” ASB noted. “Anything that impedes this is unlikely to be good news.”

ASB expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut the Official Cash Rate twice more, to 3.25% by May, to support the recovery. Inflation is forecast to hover around 2.5%, while unemployment is expected to ease gradually from a peak of 5.2% in mid-2025.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Israel Scraps Tariffs On US Imports Ahead Trump Announcement

Source: Investing

Gold Rises To New High On Tariff, Inflation Worries With Bullish Trend 'firmly Intact'

Source: Yahoo Finance

Large Majority of Europeans Support Retaliatory Tariffs Against US, Poll Finds

Source: Theguardian

Stocks Rise, Gold Hits Record as Investors Await Trump Tariff Clarity

DOLLAR UNDER PRESSURE

Source: Reuters

Bitcoin Sellers 'Dry Up' as Weekly Exchange Inflows Near 2-Year Low

Average exchange inflows down 64% since November

Bitcoin 7-day average exchange inflows. Source: Axel Adler Jr./X

Binance inflows hint at a “more neutral stance”

Binance vs. other exchange BTC inflows from short-term holders (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Source: Cointelegraph

European Stock Markets Record First Monthly Drop as US Tariffs Loom

Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs on “Liberation Day”

European consumer stocks lead broad losses

The euro posts its strongest monthly gain since 2022

Source: Euronews

New Zealand Dollar: Prius-style Recovery Lies Ahead

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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