Veteran Trader Predicts Bitcoin Dip Before Options Expiry

Early on the morning of March 28 Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese paid a visit to the governor-general, asking her to dissolve Parliament so that a federal election can be held. This was no surprise, given that legally an election needed to be held before May 17. Albanese has chosen a date two weeks earlier, and Australians will head to the polls on May 3. 

The current Labor Party government has a slim majority of just two seats in the House of Representatives. This makes the election a perilous one for the party trying to hold onto its majority, but doesn’t necessarily make it advantageous for the Liberal and National parties’ Coalition, which need to win at least 18 more seats than in the 2022 election to form a majority themselves.

The reason the gap is so large is because Australians have taken a sharp turn away from the traditional parties in recent years. At the 2007 election the combined percentage of primary votes won by the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Coalition was over 85 percent. At the last election in 2022 this had declined to around 68 percent. There is little sign of this trend reversing. 

In Australia’s preferential – or ranked choice – voting, the “primary vote” is the number of people who have given a party their first preference (ranked them first on the ballot). Due to this voting system, votes have tended to find their way back to the major parties as people rank their ballot, which produces results where a party’s percentage of primary votes is far lower than their percentage of seats.

This voting system has allowed the state to maintain stability while the public has consistently chipped away at the power of the traditional major parties. Over this period Greens have consistently captured around 10-12 percent of the vote, but have failed to move beyond this. Recent state and council elections indicate that this might be their ceiling. 

While an array of narrow or single-issue parties have flooded the country’s ballots and been able to attract small percentages of the vote, the real political shift in the country is the public’s increasing attraction to independent candidates. 

The public have internalized a belief that the game of relentless party advantage does not work in either local or national interests. Many believe that the parties have become far too obsessed with contesting their main opponents and less focused on the job of governing. There is a lack of trust in political parties to do their job political parties were designed to do. Australians also look to the United States and see that a strict two-party system creates the opposite of stability; it leads to political, social and even familial division. 

Into this environment has stepped a movement called the Community Independents Project, which created a template for grassroots organization and tactics for winning elections. So far the movement has been able to win eight seats in the House of Representatives, and 36 candidates will be utilizing its model this election. 

While in the last election the model was able to gain the most traction in urban elections – with the country’s wealthy elite launching a revolt against their traditional home in the Liberal Party – the model’s roots are rural, where it won its first seat, and this is where the the Community Independents Project will most likely gain further traction in this election. 

Rural electorates in Australia have unique sets of interests that require MPs who demonstrate both commitment and care. Often these electorates are massive, with the largest – Durack in Western Australia – being twice the size of Texas. As a result they house communities that can be isolated and lacking in the services that urban Australia takes for granted. Political bickering, culture war theatrics, or intra-party horse-trading do them no service. 

This makes independent candidates incredibly attractive to rural voters. It creates a bond of trust and connection to local interests that can otherwise be subsumed to party interests. Until recently, independents in the Parliament tended to be from rural electorates. 

The most likely scenario from this election is a minority government – with either Labor or the Liberal-National Coalition having to negotiate with the crossbench to form a government. Labor will be loath to negotiate with the Greens due to the party’s absolutist politics and aggressive tactics, and this would be a political non-starter for the Liberals and Nationals. It is also unlikely that the Green will secure enough seats to be the kingmakers. 

This will place power into the hands of an array of independent candidates. It will give them the responsibility to do what the public want them to do – negotiate in good faith, balance their local community interests with national ones, and be calm, rational decision makers. This type of politics may be a dream, but Australians are hoping it could be reality. 

Source: The Diplomat

U.S. President Donald Trump’s anticipated tariff announcements next week threaten the global growth outlook, although the risks from escalating trade tensions have been "well telegraphed" and are "largely priced in corners of the market," according to analysts at Barclays.

In a note to clients, the analysts led by Emmanuel Cau noted that Trump’s so-called "liberation day" pronouncements, which are projected to be unveiled on April 2, "may not be a complete shocker." Trump is expected to reveal "reciprocal" tariffs that aim to match foreign levies on U.S. goods, although he has suggested that the duties may be more "lenient."

Still, the Barclays analysts said Trump’s tariffs would target a group of 15-25 countries that would take effect immediately.

"The ’good’ news is that it should remove some uncertainty, as we will finally find out which countries are taxed by the U.S., and by how much," the brokerage wrote. "The bad news however, is that negotiations will likely start after April 2, which leads to an extended period of uncertainty about the final scope, level and timing of tariffs."

The comments come after Trump said he plans to slap the tariffs on global automotive imports into the U.S. from April 3, following through on a prior pledge to place a trade tax on overseas car and truck manufacturers.

Speaking at the Oval Office on Wednesday afternoon, Trump added that the duties will apply to “all cars not made in the U.S."

The statement appeared to exclude possible carve-outs for Mexico and Canada, two countries that play a pivotal role in the process of car construction in North America and have a free-trade agreement with the U.S. that was signed during Trump’s first term in office.

Source: Investing

U.S. President Donald Trump's scheduled April 2 tariff policy announcement could clear a fog of uncertainty that has clouded financial markets this year, yet few investors expect to get the definitive guidance they seek.

Investors entered 2025 bullish about pro-growth government policies under Trump, but instead the stock market has swooned since his inauguration. Headlines on tariffs whipsawed Wall Street, knocking the S&P 500 as much as 10% earlier this month.

The benchmark index is on pace to finish the first quarter down about 3%, its biggest decline for the first three months since 2022.

"I'm an eternal bull, but I would tell you that I think that between now and next week, and certainly the beginning of earnings season, I think there's more potential downside than upside right now," Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer at Siebert Financial said.

The April 2 tariff announcement should reveal which countries and sectors the Trump administration will target as it tries to reduce a $1.2 trillion global goods trade deficit.

Heavy volatility is expected, with stock prices swinging wildly on factors such as how steep the tariffs will be, their duration, which countries and sectors they will target and any retaliatory measures from trading partners.

"Uncertainty has continued to plague the market with volatility," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors.

"There is potential for more volatility on April 2 and post that deadline," Arone said.

On Thursday, governments from Ottawa to Paris threatened retaliation after Trump unveiled a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, hammering auto stocks and testing already strained ties with allies.

The April 2 announcement is likely "not a one-and-done event," said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

"It is an important milestone, but at the end of the day, it doesn't completely really clear out all the uncertainties that potentially still remain," Kourkafas said.

The market reaction on April 2 “will depend heavily” on timing for future tariffs, especially sectoral tariffs, and how fast other countries could retaliate to reciprocal tariffs, said Matthew Aks, senior strategist at Evercore ISI.

"If other countries retaliate, that will create the risk of an escalatory cycle that could dampen any feeling of relief," he said.

On Wednesday, strategists at Barclays slashed their 2025 target price for the S&P 500 to 5,900 from 6,600, based on an expectation that earnings take a hit as tariffs feed a material slowdown in U.S. activity that stops short of recession.

Source: Yahoo Finance

“But... when Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won't be fighting it.”

Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: @A_Trade_Academy/X

“However, none of them indicate that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top level.”

Bitcoin IFP chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Source: Cointelegraph

Oil prices were little changed Friday, remaining near a one-month high and heading for a third consecutive weekly gain amid concerns of a tightening supply.

At 06:40 ET (10:40 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in April weakened 0.2% to $73.19 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were 0.2% lower to $69.80 per barrel. 

Both contracts were on track to rise over 2% for the week, marking their third consecutive weekly gain, driven by U.S. threats of tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil and gas, along with declining U.S. crude inventories.

"Crude prices are trading almost flat this morning as the market remains cautious about softer demand and rising supply," said analysts at ING, in a note.

Oil set for weekly jump 

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all imports from countries that purchase oil or gas from Venezuela, effective April 2. 

Venezuela’s oil exports are a significant component of its economy, with China being its largest oil buyer. Other major buyers include the U.S. and India.

The announcement has raised concerns about potential disruptions in global oil supply chains and has contributed to higher oil prices.

Moreover, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly report released on Wednesday, suggested a tightening supply in the crude oil market.

U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels to 433.6 million barrels, a drawdown exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 956,000-barrel reduction. 

Gasoline stocks fell by 1.4 million barrels, though the decline was slightly less than analysts’ expectations of 1.8 million barrels. 

Trump set to impose reciprocal tariffs next week

President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday his intention to impose a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles and parts, effective April 2.

Trump is also set to impose separate worldwide reciprocal tariffs on April 2, seeking to target countries with significant trade imbalances with the U.S.

The escalating trade tensions and impending tariffs are keeping oil traders cautious, as potential disruptions to global supply chains and economic uncertainty could weigh on fuel demand.

OPEC+ to start reviving output

Investors are also aware that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is scheduled to start reviving its idled production with the first monthly increases of 138,000 barrels per day next month, following its decision to gradually unwind the output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026.

"On the other hand, some of the OPEC countries have agreed to further reduce the output (ranging from 189k b/d to 435k b/d until June 2026) to compensate for higher production earlier. The cuts, if implemented, will help offset the production hikes and balance the market in the immediate term," said ING.

Source: Investing

The UK’s total retail sales index from January 2022 to February 2025. The index is seasonally adjusted and uses 2022 as the base year (Index = 100).

Non-Food Stores Lead the Charge

Food Sales Pull Back

Broader Trends and Online Spending

Cautious Outlook Says Lloyds Bank

Source: Poundsterlinglive